* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/27/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 45 49 57 68 81 95 100 96 91 83 77 69 63 56 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 45 49 57 68 81 95 100 96 91 83 77 69 63 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 55 66 77 86 86 76 62 52 45 40 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 18 13 7 10 7 3 8 12 13 7 7 5 5 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 2 5 5 2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 21 8 19 32 28 22 297 64 56 64 45 75 316 285 304 192 281 SST (C) 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.9 26.8 25.3 24.1 23.3 22.6 22.1 21.3 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 162 160 157 155 152 149 143 132 116 103 94 87 82 73 72 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 73 75 75 75 75 78 81 78 74 67 62 58 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 16 17 20 26 29 34 36 34 32 29 27 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 28 38 47 38 49 49 42 43 37 51 37 49 49 37 15 200 MB DIV 75 70 49 79 92 114 146 105 92 78 70 75 8 20 -5 -8 -28 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -7 -8 -7 -5 -4 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 727 759 800 840 890 971 1018 1008 998 1002 1047 1127 1168 1237 1309 1391 1460 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.6 17.8 19.0 20.0 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.3 108.2 109.3 110.3 111.9 113.6 115.4 116.8 118.4 120.3 122.1 123.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 8 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 23 23 23 21 17 16 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 17. 14. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 10. 17. 25. 29. 25. 21. 15. 12. 9. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 17. 28. 41. 55. 60. 56. 51. 43. 37. 29. 23. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.4 106.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/27/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.97 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 20.1% 17.9% 17.1% 0.0% 18.9% 31.8% 41.0% Logistic: 0.6% 6.2% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 3.4% 11.8% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.7% 10.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.8% 6.9% 6.1% 0.1% 7.5% 15.4% 19.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/27/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##