* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/27/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 34 36 39 49 57 72 84 93 91 85 81 75 71 66 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 34 36 39 49 57 72 84 93 91 85 81 75 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 34 36 39 45 54 65 73 72 65 55 49 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 27 21 15 13 10 12 5 6 13 11 11 2 3 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -1 -1 2 -1 -2 0 3 4 4 2 0 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 39 39 41 41 28 41 38 349 342 43 55 54 58 343 303 291 320 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.3 27.1 25.1 24.1 23.2 23.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 154 154 156 158 156 154 154 147 135 114 103 94 91 87 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 73 71 75 76 76 73 74 76 78 74 70 65 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 15 16 15 19 20 26 31 35 34 30 29 26 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 16 28 19 36 55 52 56 51 52 40 37 39 50 35 32 200 MB DIV 52 56 57 79 75 80 111 125 141 109 118 60 70 25 46 5 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -9 -4 -3 -6 -4 0 -1 0 -2 2 LAND (KM) 691 704 716 745 777 849 962 1069 1072 1073 1082 1068 1080 1154 1214 1288 1359 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.3 17.5 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.7 105.7 106.6 107.4 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.0 116.3 117.6 119.0 120.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 10 10 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 21 19 18 21 22 20 22 19 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. 26. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 12. 19. 24. 21. 15. 12. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 14. 22. 37. 49. 58. 56. 50. 46. 40. 36. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.7 103.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/27/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.5% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% 9.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/27/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##