* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/20/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 39 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 39 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 43 40 36 30 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 6 5 4 5 4 10 4 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 3 0 2 2 5 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 308 335 32 42 303 284 280 233 219 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.6 23.4 22.9 22.3 21.7 21.6 21.4 21.5 22.2 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 98 96 91 84 78 76 73 73 82 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 63 59 56 53 50 49 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 19 17 15 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 10 6 19 35 37 47 18 23 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 7 1 -15 -11 15 -7 3 -27 -24 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -4 3 0 -3 2 3 4 4 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 827 890 945 992 1046 1150 1248 1350 1391 1484 1625 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.0 23.0 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.8 120.8 121.9 122.9 124.6 126.0 127.3 127.8 128.8 130.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 4 3 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -18. -20. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -23. -30. -36. -41. -47. -52. -53. -55. -58. -59. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.4 118.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/20/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/20/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##