* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/20/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 53 51 46 37 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 53 51 46 37 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 49 45 37 30 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 5 8 2 3 7 4 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 3 1 0 2 1 6 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 204 333 9 50 164 346 249 281 200 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.3 23.6 23.3 22.8 21.8 21.3 21.3 21.4 22.0 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 106 99 96 90 79 73 73 74 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 67 62 61 53 51 47 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 20 18 16 14 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 13 13 20 35 35 32 26 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 56 16 7 2 1 -4 4 -9 -10 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -12 -6 1 0 0 0 2 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 748 810 888 941 980 1083 1183 1294 1415 1524 1615 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.6 119.8 120.9 121.9 123.8 125.4 126.8 128.2 129.4 130.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -21. -25. -29. -33. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -18. -22. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -4. -9. -18. -25. -31. -38. -43. -49. -50. -52. -55. -57. -61. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.0 117.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/20/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/20/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##