* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/19/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 49 49 47 44 39 33 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 49 49 47 44 39 33 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 47 44 42 37 32 27 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 11 4 0 4 1 2 3 2 7 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 0 3 2 4 2 0 3 2 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 345 341 4 326 20 39 14 244 243 215 213 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.1 25.7 25.4 24.9 23.6 22.3 21.6 21.3 21.4 22.3 22.1 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 125 121 118 112 99 85 77 73 74 83 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 72 71 67 62 58 55 52 50 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 24 24 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 27 26 31 26 49 43 43 24 28 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 46 55 72 64 10 -45 6 2 -3 -19 -28 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -5 3 0 -8 2 -1 1 3 5 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 664 722 771 808 861 977 1054 1163 1276 1405 1532 1645 1748 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.3 116.4 117.6 118.7 120.9 123.0 124.9 126.6 128.1 129.4 130.8 132.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -8. -11. -16. -22. -26. -30. -35. -41. -46. -47. -47. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.4 114.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/19/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/19/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##