* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/18/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 70 71 68 64 54 46 37 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 70 71 68 64 54 46 37 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 68 67 62 55 45 36 29 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 11 9 6 6 4 6 5 5 4 9 9 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -5 -5 -1 0 0 0 1 3 1 4 6 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 357 353 352 9 56 357 35 326 290 321 197 220 221 194 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 26.7 26.0 25.6 24.8 23.5 22.3 21.5 21.3 21.4 22.0 21.7 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 131 124 120 112 98 85 76 74 74 80 77 78 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 73 72 71 67 60 59 55 53 51 45 41 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 25 27 27 27 23 21 19 16 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 19 18 32 43 53 69 51 50 32 42 41 43 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 61 50 49 63 55 5 -37 7 13 9 -30 -30 -3 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -10 -6 0 -1 0 1 0 5 2 7 3 3 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 569 592 639 711 767 862 983 1070 1151 1276 1420 1535 1598 1711 1867 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.5 23.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.9 113.1 114.2 115.4 116.5 118.8 121.1 123.2 124.9 126.6 128.3 129.7 130.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 8 9 7 6 6 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -35. -40. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 0. -3. -6. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. -2. -6. -16. -24. -33. -42. -47. -54. -59. -65. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.1 111.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/18/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.39 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 14.5% 13.9% 12.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/18/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##