* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/18/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 70 72 73 71 67 60 49 41 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 70 72 73 71 67 60 49 41 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 69 69 68 67 62 55 46 37 31 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 6 8 1 0 3 5 7 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 3 4 0 1 8 8 2 SHEAR DIR 10 360 8 10 18 22 37 349 341 318 225 316 113 194 202 183 224 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.3 25.9 25.0 23.4 22.0 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 150 145 137 123 114 97 82 79 78 78 78 75 78 81 83 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 76 73 74 70 68 63 60 56 51 48 45 40 34 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 24 21 18 16 13 12 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 26 27 30 45 48 49 69 56 50 30 43 36 26 19 33 200 MB DIV 105 100 58 75 65 63 51 14 -15 -1 3 -12 -15 -22 -4 8 -6 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -5 -4 -5 0 1 0 1 2 6 2 5 1 1 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 498 586 576 608 659 765 861 970 1078 1195 1293 1424 1555 1645 1749 1856 1962 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.5 111.8 112.9 114.0 116.3 118.7 120.8 123.4 125.2 126.5 128.2 130.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 11 8 7 10 8 5 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 9 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -33. -38. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -7. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 1. -3. -10. -21. -29. -37. -44. -51. -56. -62. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.3 109.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/18/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.41 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 16.4% 15.5% 14.7% 9.1% 11.3% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.9% 5.3% 5.0% 3.1% 3.8% 2.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 10.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/18/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##