* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/17/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 85 87 88 87 82 75 64 53 42 32 25 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 85 87 88 87 82 75 64 53 42 32 25 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 80 81 81 82 78 70 58 47 37 30 26 22 18 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 11 14 14 22 16 11 10 6 7 4 6 6 6 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -3 2 0 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 19 52 47 39 26 32 33 33 343 346 322 318 1 61 83 137 148 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.2 26.0 25.2 23.5 22.3 22.1 22.1 22.5 22.0 21.9 22.0 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 151 151 149 137 124 116 98 85 82 83 86 80 79 80 82 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 81 78 74 74 72 67 61 58 53 47 42 38 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 24 26 27 30 30 29 28 25 22 18 16 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 25 30 31 35 36 56 64 74 74 62 58 47 60 46 48 34 200 MB DIV 59 106 127 114 88 48 75 71 24 -21 -2 -16 -6 -21 -25 -25 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 2 -2 2 -1 2 2 0 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 461 503 565 645 650 731 829 922 1052 1138 1245 1375 1550 1664 1746 1851 1976 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.5 19.3 20.4 21.3 21.9 22.4 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.4 108.5 109.6 110.7 111.8 114.3 116.6 119.0 121.5 123.7 125.5 127.3 129.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 10 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 11 10 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -27. -31. -36. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 7. -0. -11. -22. -33. -43. -50. -57. -63. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.9 107.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/17/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.41 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 23.7% 19.8% 18.9% 11.6% 13.5% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 6.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 10.2% 7.4% 6.7% 4.0% 4.6% 3.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 26.0% 42.0% 38.0% 26.0% 25.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/17/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##