* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/17/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 86 91 94 91 84 76 65 53 42 33 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 86 91 94 91 84 76 65 53 42 33 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 85 87 88 84 75 64 52 41 33 27 22 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 11 12 17 16 13 12 12 9 8 10 10 13 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -3 0 -3 -2 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 12 8 25 26 37 43 31 44 26 360 356 9 14 49 58 104 107 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.0 26.6 25.6 24.7 23.2 21.9 21.9 22.1 22.4 21.9 22.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 154 152 152 145 130 120 111 95 81 80 82 85 80 80 80 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 80 80 80 76 76 72 69 64 62 54 50 44 42 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 28 30 31 29 29 27 24 21 19 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 4 12 23 23 29 32 51 57 64 65 48 33 34 35 46 35 35 200 MB DIV 72 46 83 106 106 94 21 76 18 12 -14 -10 -23 -22 -33 -14 -10 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -6 -4 0 -2 1 -5 1 0 2 2 1 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 457 478 521 590 663 701 806 891 997 1095 1176 1298 1433 1592 1714 1815 1894 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.7 21.8 22.5 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.6 108.6 109.7 110.8 113.1 115.5 117.9 120.2 122.5 124.6 126.5 128.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 8 8 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 15 12 11 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. -33. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 19. 16. 9. 1. -10. -22. -33. -42. -51. -57. -64. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.5 106.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/17/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 23.7% 20.2% 19.5% 11.8% 15.5% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 9.3% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.9% 6.4% 3.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 13.1% 8.7% 7.5% 4.3% 5.3% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 31.0% 42.0% 38.0% 28.0% 23.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/17/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##