* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/17/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 84 90 95 101 101 95 87 79 65 52 43 33 27 20 15 V (KT) LAND 70 77 84 90 95 101 101 95 87 79 65 52 43 33 27 20 15 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 81 86 89 92 91 85 76 64 51 40 32 26 22 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 15 15 16 18 20 10 12 10 7 9 3 6 5 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 -4 -3 0 2 1 0 2 2 1 3 4 6 SHEAR DIR 36 27 35 41 41 25 30 34 17 346 321 324 236 33 103 135 48 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.5 27.4 26.4 25.5 24.0 22.8 21.9 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 160 160 157 150 139 128 119 103 91 80 80 82 85 80 78 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 80 82 78 76 74 71 67 62 60 56 49 48 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 24 26 26 28 30 31 30 30 26 23 20 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 15 24 16 25 27 46 43 53 50 40 33 22 34 25 20 200 MB DIV 140 108 82 131 120 99 50 93 58 17 -23 -17 -2 -9 -23 -22 -33 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -5 -7 -1 -1 3 -5 5 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 438 463 483 522 581 687 759 868 931 1044 1115 1205 1311 1461 1634 1706 1742 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.8 19.8 21.0 22.0 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.4 107.3 108.4 109.4 111.6 114.0 116.4 118.6 120.9 123.1 125.1 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 9 8 8 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 18 18 15 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. 8. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 25. 31. 31. 25. 17. 9. -5. -18. -27. -37. -43. -50. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.9 105.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/17/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.36 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.3% 47.8% 28.4% 23.6% 14.4% 19.1% 13.2% 8.0% Logistic: 9.1% 16.6% 6.5% 4.2% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 17.2% 13.9% 13.1% 5.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.6% 26.1% 16.0% 11.0% 5.8% 7.0% 4.6% 2.7% DTOPS: 61.0% 72.0% 60.0% 50.0% 34.0% 34.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/17/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##