* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/17/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 80 89 96 104 103 97 90 78 66 55 45 36 28 22 15 V (KT) LAND 65 72 80 89 96 104 103 97 90 78 66 55 45 36 28 22 15 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 84 89 95 95 90 80 68 55 43 35 29 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 15 17 15 18 23 21 14 11 7 7 2 4 8 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 2 2 1 4 -1 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 54 46 49 52 48 32 38 38 26 8 339 310 293 340 79 106 105 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.0 26.9 25.9 25.0 23.8 22.5 22.2 22.5 22.6 22.1 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 160 160 154 145 134 123 113 101 88 84 86 87 82 79 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 77 79 81 77 78 75 73 69 64 56 52 46 43 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 26 27 28 30 32 33 31 29 26 23 20 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 17 25 30 25 29 44 46 42 43 44 45 46 40 43 32 200 MB DIV 119 156 147 131 122 108 86 32 92 34 16 -23 -22 -16 -19 -21 -33 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 -2 1 -3 6 0 4 -3 1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 439 448 470 485 514 641 704 780 882 985 1113 1191 1324 1480 1624 1712 1758 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.0 21.0 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.5 106.5 107.4 108.3 110.4 112.7 114.9 117.5 119.8 121.9 124.1 126.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 10 11 11 12 13 11 11 12 12 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 22 17 18 18 12 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 9. 14. 17. 14. 11. 7. 3. -1. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 31. 39. 38. 32. 25. 13. 1. -10. -20. -29. -37. -43. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.4 104.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/17/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.87 12.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 9.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 8.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.4% 66.5% 47.8% 35.9% 24.6% 26.4% 15.5% 9.0% Logistic: 19.3% 34.1% 16.0% 12.2% 6.6% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 18.9% 24.0% 22.5% 9.2% 3.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 27.9% 41.6% 28.7% 19.1% 11.5% 11.4% 5.7% 3.1% DTOPS: 48.0% 87.0% 75.0% 58.0% 45.0% 55.0% 15.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/17/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##