* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/16/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 77 85 94 103 103 99 93 84 73 61 51 42 34 27 19 V (KT) LAND 60 68 77 85 94 103 103 99 93 84 73 61 51 42 34 27 19 V (KT) LGEM 60 68 75 82 89 97 98 95 87 74 61 49 40 33 28 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 15 17 16 22 25 16 14 9 4 1 2 6 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 2 0 1 -3 -2 1 0 0 0 4 3 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 62 67 56 57 48 50 34 36 42 34 358 347 316 154 107 161 165 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.6 27.5 26.4 25.4 24.0 23.2 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 157 158 158 151 140 129 118 103 95 84 88 89 82 82 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 78 77 79 75 74 76 73 68 61 58 52 45 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 21 25 27 28 30 33 32 32 29 26 23 20 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 3 15 11 21 31 26 33 39 59 67 87 84 80 84 69 76 60 200 MB DIV 108 107 146 143 122 129 108 74 65 42 2 -35 -6 -19 -31 -15 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -8 -4 -8 -1 -1 -3 -5 0 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 460 453 464 490 508 571 698 747 845 930 1068 1161 1269 1433 1620 1738 1851 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.2 16.8 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.8 105.7 106.6 107.4 109.2 111.6 113.8 116.2 118.7 121.1 123.3 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 11 11 11 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 21 18 18 16 11 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 20. 18. 14. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 25. 34. 43. 43. 39. 33. 24. 13. 1. -9. -18. -26. -33. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.0 103.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/16/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 12.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 11.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 9.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -9.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.1% 70.1% 53.2% 43.9% 28.9% 36.7% 17.2% 10.6% Logistic: 22.8% 41.2% 19.7% 15.1% 8.2% 8.5% 3.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 42.5% 35.7% 34.8% 16.6% 8.7% 6.4% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 35.5% 49.0% 35.9% 25.2% 15.3% 17.2% 7.0% 3.8% DTOPS: 48.0% 84.0% 71.0% 48.0% 33.0% 65.0% 40.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/16/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##