* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/16/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 61 71 80 94 100 99 93 87 80 73 63 55 47 39 32 V (KT) LAND 45 53 61 71 80 94 100 99 93 87 80 73 63 55 47 39 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 60 67 75 90 97 95 89 82 73 62 50 40 33 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 11 9 15 16 19 18 16 11 11 6 6 8 2 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 1 1 -3 -1 0 2 -1 0 2 0 5 1 SHEAR DIR 33 46 67 83 53 44 39 38 44 33 26 326 302 303 205 233 201 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.5 28.4 27.6 26.3 25.2 23.8 22.7 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 158 156 150 149 141 127 116 101 89 76 75 74 80 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 77 78 79 78 75 77 74 70 66 61 56 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 20 21 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 27 25 22 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 7 22 16 30 25 28 27 45 39 36 42 27 29 21 36 200 MB DIV 116 107 123 146 164 111 137 123 74 65 54 21 -12 9 -22 -8 -26 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -1 0 0 -6 -2 -6 0 -1 2 4 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 470 472 452 459 475 499 566 683 723 807 869 979 1055 1139 1264 1405 1526 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.3 19.3 20.3 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.5 104.3 105.1 105.9 107.4 109.3 111.4 113.7 116.0 118.3 120.5 122.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 25 21 18 16 11 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. 11. 8. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 20. 21. 20. 19. 14. 11. 8. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 26. 35. 49. 55. 54. 48. 42. 35. 28. 18. 10. 2. -6. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.4 102.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/16/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 12.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.45 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -9.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 63.8% 48.1% 36.1% 20.9% 51.8% 54.4% 25.5% Logistic: 5.5% 27.0% 14.5% 9.6% 4.9% 11.3% 14.0% 4.1% Bayesian: 13.1% 21.4% 23.7% 7.4% 1.7% 3.0% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 11.9% 37.4% 28.7% 17.7% 9.2% 22.0% 23.2% 9.9% DTOPS: 21.0% 70.0% 52.0% 39.0% 19.0% 55.0% 53.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/16/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##