* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062022 07/15/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 53 68 79 84 87 84 81 78 70 61 51 44 36 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 53 68 79 84 87 84 81 78 70 61 51 44 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 53 63 72 73 71 67 61 52 43 36 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 11 13 11 17 14 21 23 22 13 7 5 7 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 2 -1 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 56 51 65 75 68 67 51 20 20 29 36 340 322 328 43 19 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.2 25.2 23.7 22.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 158 160 160 159 156 150 144 138 126 116 100 90 79 80 80 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 76 76 78 78 78 78 80 80 78 77 73 66 58 53 47 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 20 24 25 27 28 30 32 29 27 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 19 34 26 9 12 21 36 35 36 33 48 60 75 87 75 75 56 200 MB DIV 87 102 123 107 109 158 161 148 60 83 86 50 8 -1 -33 -31 -34 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 -9 -8 -9 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 468 458 447 437 422 413 438 493 620 649 761 862 1005 1093 1164 1291 1471 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.6 101.5 102.4 103.0 103.7 105.3 107.0 108.6 111.0 113.4 115.7 118.2 120.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 7 8 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 25 25 25 19 15 9 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 25. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 21. 22. 24. 25. 20. 16. 11. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 23. 38. 49. 54. 57. 54. 51. 48. 40. 31. 21. 14. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 100.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 SIX 07/15/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.39 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 27.8% 21.0% 19.7% 0.0% 21.0% 37.4% 39.4% Logistic: 4.2% 25.9% 12.0% 7.1% 3.1% 18.1% 29.8% 7.3% Bayesian: 2.9% 17.5% 10.9% 3.0% 0.4% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% Consensus: 5.8% 23.7% 14.6% 9.9% 1.2% 14.4% 23.0% 15.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 32.0% 15.0% 10.0% 7.0% 24.0% 28.0% 33.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 SIX 07/15/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##