* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 07/14/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 46 55 66 78 89 94 98 96 92 84 76 69 61 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 46 55 66 78 89 94 98 96 92 84 76 69 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 46 53 62 71 79 84 81 72 61 51 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 13 15 13 15 7 4 9 15 20 15 12 5 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 77 61 61 59 59 47 64 78 52 6 22 30 27 33 358 131 169 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.5 27.7 26.2 24.7 24.2 24.1 23.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 158 160 160 161 156 153 150 150 143 127 111 105 103 95 92 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 73 74 78 78 81 84 83 79 79 76 67 64 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 13 16 19 22 25 28 30 32 31 30 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 17 5 4 6 11 19 34 36 55 43 58 71 86 82 68 200 MB DIV 61 56 69 64 81 130 141 155 142 159 108 91 62 11 4 28 10 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -8 -7 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 558 547 546 537 531 494 449 379 319 299 412 402 557 739 922 1048 1076 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.3 14.1 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.7 19.8 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.5 100.3 101.0 101.8 103.0 103.9 104.5 105.3 106.8 109.2 112.0 115.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 8 11 14 15 14 11 8 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 33 32 29 30 24 17 11 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. 31. 30. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 12. 19. 22. 26. 27. 27. 23. 20. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 25. 36. 48. 59. 64. 68. 66. 62. 54. 46. 39. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 98.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.27 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 21.5% 17.4% 15.9% 0.0% 17.7% 16.4% 37.9% Logistic: 1.7% 15.0% 4.5% 2.4% 1.1% 6.3% 30.9% 24.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.5% 2.9% 5.5% Consensus: 3.4% 14.2% 7.7% 6.2% 0.4% 8.8% 16.7% 22.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##