* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 07/14/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 40 52 65 77 86 91 91 87 82 73 65 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 40 52 65 77 86 91 91 87 82 73 65 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 39 46 54 61 66 65 58 49 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 15 13 16 17 13 7 1 13 18 21 17 12 10 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 0 2 1 0 -1 -4 -5 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 78 75 64 58 58 56 60 81 72 17 358 25 44 34 24 5 45 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.5 27.1 25.5 23.7 23.2 23.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 156 158 160 160 158 155 152 149 151 136 120 101 95 92 100 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 6 4 6 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 71 72 76 78 80 83 82 81 79 78 72 66 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 8 9 11 14 17 20 23 26 27 28 30 29 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 34 21 14 8 4 -4 -3 8 10 29 33 37 39 65 73 84 81 200 MB DIV 53 52 49 60 65 83 118 156 175 148 116 84 68 83 -3 16 13 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 589 586 585 581 571 548 519 444 365 315 304 379 371 544 788 1032 1190 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.5 13.3 14.2 15.2 16.4 17.9 19.5 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.9 99.7 100.4 101.1 102.4 103.5 104.1 104.6 105.6 107.4 109.7 112.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 9 13 14 16 14 13 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 29 32 32 29 31 23 16 11 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 36. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 22. 24. 25. 24. 23. 20. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 27. 40. 52. 61. 66. 66. 62. 57. 49. 40. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 97.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 10.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6% 2.9% 11.7% 14.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% Consensus: 0.3% 8.6% 5.3% 0.4% 0.2% 5.5% 8.5% 5.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##