* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 07/14/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 54 62 66 69 69 67 65 61 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 54 62 66 69 69 67 65 61 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 36 39 42 46 49 50 48 44 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 20 17 13 13 14 15 9 7 10 16 16 7 5 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -4 -3 -2 0 1 -1 2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 68 61 65 73 80 43 54 62 72 31 8 351 357 1 74 91 80 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.5 27.4 27.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 153 155 156 157 157 157 153 151 140 138 124 120 117 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.2 -53.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 6 4 4 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 73 75 76 79 80 80 82 82 82 78 79 75 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 50 41 34 25 12 17 10 13 13 31 34 50 48 65 70 80 200 MB DIV 23 50 53 49 56 64 103 155 182 188 146 93 118 84 48 16 18 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -6 -11 -20 -18 -18 -1 1 LAND (KM) 568 567 551 540 527 501 468 437 391 361 315 322 475 513 713 877 975 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.9 17.2 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.4 97.0 97.6 98.1 99.4 100.6 101.5 102.3 103.4 104.9 107.0 109.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 6 8 6 5 6 8 11 13 15 16 13 7 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 24 27 28 26 25 22 21 23 14 11 3 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 21. 29. 37. 41. 44. 44. 42. 40. 36. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 95.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.13 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 8.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 4.3% 24.8% 35.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 3.3% Consensus: 0.2% 8.3% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 5.9% 12.9% 12.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##