* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 07/13/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 27 34 46 58 74 82 93 94 96 90 84 80 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 27 34 46 58 74 82 93 94 96 90 84 80 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 30 36 44 53 61 66 65 61 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 15 14 8 10 13 7 7 11 13 19 27 19 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 5 4 0 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 62 57 64 71 70 63 67 69 80 130 358 10 27 41 41 53 18 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.7 27.4 26.8 26.0 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 153 155 155 158 158 159 154 153 141 135 126 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 74 74 77 78 81 81 81 81 79 75 71 66 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 9 12 13 18 20 26 26 30 30 31 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 64 60 48 40 39 21 21 22 22 18 32 43 55 64 101 109 108 200 MB DIV 20 26 50 47 33 72 81 148 174 180 114 106 68 67 51 17 62 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -5 -6 -12 -10 -8 -10 -5 LAND (KM) 502 552 556 536 513 471 417 379 312 269 226 269 468 606 910 1229 1445 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.8 12.7 13.6 14.7 15.6 16.6 17.8 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.4 96.1 96.7 97.3 98.6 99.9 101.1 102.1 103.1 104.5 106.9 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 11 15 18 19 18 13 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 20 24 31 27 20 20 20 27 17 13 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 14. 17. 24. 23. 26. 23. 22. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 14. 26. 38. 54. 62. 73. 74. 76. 70. 64. 60. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 94.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/13/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 28.7% 9.0% 4.9% 1.6% 14.7% 39.3% 49.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.3% 1.7% Consensus: 1.0% 10.3% 3.1% 1.6% 0.5% 5.3% 13.8% 17.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/13/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##