* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/16/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 35 33 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 35 33 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 20 21 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 304 293 291 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 126 125 126 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.8 -55.5 -54.9 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 30 27 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -28 -19 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -67 -54 -9 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 11 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 343 218 182 315 496 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.3 154.3 156.3 158.2 160.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. -24. -24. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -33. -33. -34. -34. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 152.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/16/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 440.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/16/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##