* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/16/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 28 25 23 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 34 28 25 23 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 33 28 24 22 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 26 21 20 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 280 301 304 302 299 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 121 123 123 123 125 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 -55.7 -55.4 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 37 35 31 29 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 -14 -17 -26 -13 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -38 -51 -63 -51 -10 -9 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 0 5 11 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 693 514 347 223 159 449 643 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.1 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.5 150.3 152.1 154.0 155.8 159.6 163.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -24. -23. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -15. -17. -19. -24. -30. -36. -39. -42. -44. -44. -43. -42. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.7 148.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/16/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -42.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/16/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##