* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/15/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 55 47 41 37 31 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 55 47 41 37 31 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 57 50 44 40 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 22 19 20 18 25 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 5 4 0 1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 240 257 260 270 294 292 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.0 25.1 25.8 26.0 25.7 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 117 115 116 123 126 123 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 43 40 37 33 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 7 7 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 -10 -10 -10 -19 -20 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -34 -28 -40 -44 -52 -9 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 7 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1151 995 841 677 519 259 267 547 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.1 145.6 147.1 148.8 150.4 153.8 157.4 160.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -24. -28. -34. -39. -46. -51. -54. -56. -58. -59. -58. -56. -56. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.4 144.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/15/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.01 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 535.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/15/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##