* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/15/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 65 58 52 43 35 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 73 65 58 52 43 35 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 73 67 61 55 46 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 24 23 20 26 23 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 5 3 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 217 238 258 263 286 306 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.0 25.0 26.0 25.9 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 117 115 115 125 125 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 46 42 39 35 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 8 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 0 -9 -12 -13 -23 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -9 -33 -20 -37 -74 -14 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 4 7 3 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1296 1154 1012 846 683 370 187 388 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.3 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.7 144.0 145.4 147.0 148.6 151.9 155.2 159.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 15 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -24. -27. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -28. -37. -45. -54. -60. -64. -67. -69. -70. -70. -69. -69. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.4 142.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/15/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 624.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/15/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##