* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/14/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 69 62 55 46 38 29 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 77 69 62 55 46 38 29 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 78 70 63 58 48 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 23 20 21 19 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 1 4 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 192 216 241 258 262 288 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.2 25.8 26.0 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 115 118 117 124 126 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 51 48 45 37 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -12 -4 -2 -10 -14 -15 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 0 -5 -30 -35 -61 -66 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 0 1 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1443 1305 1167 1018 871 548 294 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.0 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.4 142.7 144.0 145.5 146.9 150.2 153.7 157.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -26. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -30. -39. -47. -56. -61. -65. -68. -70. -70. -70. -68. -67. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.9 141.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/14/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 602.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/14/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##