* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/13/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 84 80 75 66 53 42 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 87 84 80 75 66 53 42 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 81 76 72 63 52 43 35 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 8 11 14 25 26 29 34 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 2 2 5 3 -3 0 -6 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 107 107 135 169 225 235 259 275 308 314 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.0 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.3 25.4 25.1 25.9 25.8 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 122 125 123 117 118 116 124 124 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 58 57 56 53 46 38 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 11 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 -4 -6 -8 -10 -9 -21 -22 -24 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 26 24 12 18 -10 -23 -45 -48 -61 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 2 1 3 1 3 -2 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2196 2058 1920 1770 1620 1355 1091 787 520 310 377 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.7 136.0 137.2 138.5 139.9 142.4 144.9 148.0 151.0 154.4 158.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 12 13 14 15 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -35. -37. -39. -41. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -24. -37. -48. -58. -67. -74. -77. -77. -77. -76. -74. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.8 134.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/13/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 493.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/13/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##