* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/12/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 92 88 85 76 65 53 42 33 24 22 21 21 23 23 24 V (KT) LAND 105 98 92 88 85 76 65 53 42 33 24 22 21 21 23 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 105 96 89 83 79 70 61 50 41 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 3 2 6 18 24 29 23 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 0 2 5 5 2 -2 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 114 128 76 343 211 239 246 271 296 316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.2 26.4 26.6 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.0 24.7 25.2 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 129 131 122 122 121 114 112 117 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 61 61 60 56 53 46 40 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 15 16 14 13 12 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 12 4 2 -1 -8 -6 -17 -16 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 34 23 26 14 3 5 -10 -23 -43 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2175 2272 2351 2203 2054 1778 1503 1234 945 638 362 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.1 17.1 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.9 133.2 134.5 135.9 138.4 140.9 143.4 146.2 149.3 152.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 14 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -31. -38. -44. -48. -51. -53. -55. -57. -60. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -17. -20. -29. -40. -52. -63. -72. -81. -83. -84. -84. -82. -82. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.6 130.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##