* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/12/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 104 98 95 86 76 63 52 42 33 24 17 18 20 22 24 V (KT) LAND 115 109 104 98 95 86 76 63 52 42 33 24 17 18 20 22 24 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 101 94 88 78 67 56 45 36 29 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 4 1 5 13 17 25 25 22 31 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -2 0 2 4 5 2 -2 6 -4 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 94 100 98 88 215 238 236 257 276 298 306 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.5 25.6 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 127 126 130 120 121 117 114 110 121 122 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 61 61 60 57 53 49 42 36 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 17 16 16 16 15 13 12 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 15 15 12 5 -1 -8 -6 -8 -13 -19 -24 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 26 28 22 20 16 9 -4 -17 -41 -37 -42 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 3 1 0 4 0 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2055 2144 2237 2331 2236 1949 1671 1389 1112 827 529 299 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.3 131.5 132.9 134.2 136.8 139.3 141.9 144.5 147.3 150.4 153.6 156.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -19. -28. -37. -46. -53. -59. -62. -64. -65. -68. -71. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. -1. -5. -6. -6. -4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -20. -29. -39. -52. -63. -73. -82. -91. -98. -97. -95. -93. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.7 129.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 608.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##