* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/12/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 109 103 96 82 70 57 45 36 26 19 20 20 21 23 V (KT) LAND 120 117 114 109 103 96 82 70 57 45 36 26 19 20 20 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 109 101 94 82 72 61 50 39 31 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 5 5 2 7 17 24 28 25 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -2 2 4 4 2 0 0 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 112 86 72 67 102 202 238 246 266 286 316 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.7 24.9 24.9 25.7 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 132 125 122 120 118 116 111 113 114 122 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 61 61 57 54 50 43 36 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 17 16 17 14 14 13 11 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 6 8 6 0 -3 -8 -6 -10 -12 -23 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 20 16 29 16 17 17 7 2 -20 -45 -35 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 2 0 0 2 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1937 2029 2121 2218 2319 2120 1845 1549 1277 987 688 404 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.1 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.7 130.0 131.4 132.7 135.2 137.7 140.4 142.9 145.7 148.7 151.9 155.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 14 15 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -21. -31. -41. -51. -58. -64. -68. -70. -71. -74. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -1. -4. -5. -5. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -17. -24. -38. -50. -63. -75. -84. -94.-101.-100.-100. -99. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.7 127.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 612.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##