* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/12/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 120 117 112 99 87 73 59 49 38 30 22 22 22 21 22 V (KT) LAND 120 121 120 117 112 99 87 73 59 49 38 30 22 22 22 21 22 V (KT) LGEM 120 120 115 108 100 86 75 63 51 40 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 2 4 4 6 16 23 27 25 27 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 5 5 3 1 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 54 69 48 38 14 182 229 241 257 275 307 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.9 25.2 25.1 24.9 25.0 24.7 25.4 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 136 130 124 123 116 115 113 114 111 119 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 65 65 62 60 56 51 48 42 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 15 16 15 13 13 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 4 9 11 4 0 -7 -6 -5 -14 -11 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 24 5 17 32 35 26 14 -6 -18 -36 -38 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 1 6 0 0 3 1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1805 1915 2008 2101 2198 2282 1995 1705 1410 1128 864 562 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.4 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.9 127.3 128.7 130.0 131.3 133.7 136.3 138.9 141.6 144.3 146.9 150.0 153.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 14 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -31. -41. -50. -57. -64. -68. -70. -71. -73. -77. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -8. -21. -33. -47. -61. -71. -82. -90. -98. -98. -98. -99. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.8 125.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 596.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 2.1% 3.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##