* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/09/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 46 50 55 63 68 73 72 68 62 56 49 40 33 26 17 V (KT) LAND 35 41 46 50 55 63 68 73 72 68 62 56 49 40 33 26 17 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 48 51 53 56 58 57 52 45 38 29 22 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 5 5 1 11 11 4 6 11 15 26 29 27 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -2 2 1 4 -3 -5 -1 0 1 4 4 2 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 310 292 290 285 271 20 66 55 13 292 280 241 234 252 269 251 241 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.9 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.3 26.4 25.2 24.7 24.8 24.3 24.1 24.5 24.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 145 150 148 141 138 128 116 111 112 107 105 109 110 114 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -55.1 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 72 72 74 74 73 68 65 62 58 52 45 40 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 11 13 13 16 17 17 16 15 15 12 10 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 -10 -20 -14 0 0 2 -4 2 -4 10 15 21 10 3 -12 200 MB DIV 0 -1 18 11 29 60 25 33 40 49 44 35 4 -6 -2 33 21 700-850 TADV 5 2 -1 0 4 4 3 0 0 0 2 7 7 16 8 9 10 LAND (KM) 1011 1047 1108 1216 1337 1538 1761 1941 2060 2201 2188 1885 1572 1259 963 669 397 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 11 11 12 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 24 23 13 25 14 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 20. 28. 33. 38. 37. 33. 27. 21. 14. 5. -2. -9. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 112.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/09/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 35.3% 22.8% 21.5% 13.3% 25.8% 26.0% 15.3% Logistic: 58.1% 78.0% 65.6% 59.5% 36.7% 59.8% 14.6% 18.2% Bayesian: 4.4% 60.6% 10.5% 5.0% 4.5% 20.5% 5.7% 0.0% Consensus: 25.3% 58.0% 33.0% 28.6% 18.2% 35.4% 15.4% 11.2% DTOPS: 6.0% 20.0% 12.0% 9.0% 5.0% 12.0% 16.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/09/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##