* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/09/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 33 29 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 33 29 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 36 33 30 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 8 12 21 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 329 295 281 265 274 281 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.0 23.5 22.9 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 95 100 94 93 97 99 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 34 33 32 31 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 34 38 43 32 24 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -2 -13 12 -13 0 -41 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 7 4 3 3 5 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1368 1505 1655 1807 1964 2050 1726 1444 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.6 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.6 126.6 128.5 130.3 132.1 135.2 138.3 141.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 15 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -23. -30. -39. -44. -48. -51. -54. -56. -57. -58. -60. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.2 124.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/09/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/09/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##