* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/08/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 39 35 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 39 35 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 47 41 37 33 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 6 7 12 23 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 3 2 0 2 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 342 337 318 310 269 284 278 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.4 23.9 23.1 23.4 22.9 23.3 23.3 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 109 104 96 99 93 97 97 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 43 41 36 33 32 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 32 31 33 43 36 16 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -19 -16 7 -1 -1 2 -22 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 7 4 0 5 5 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1131 1263 1368 1493 1630 1922 2071 1768 1464 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.9 122.7 124.5 126.4 128.2 131.7 135.0 137.9 140.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -20. -27. -33. -41. -50. -54. -57. -59. -61. -63. -63. -66. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.5 120.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/08/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/08/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##