* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 55 51 46 38 32 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 55 51 46 38 32 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 53 48 44 37 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 4 5 5 14 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 7 5 2 0 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 325 348 359 352 302 279 284 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.1 24.3 24.0 23.1 23.0 22.9 23.3 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 108 105 96 95 93 97 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 44 42 41 39 34 32 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 23 18 31 36 43 42 27 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -23 -23 -20 7 8 7 -4 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 3 6 2 0 5 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1045 1160 1290 1402 1528 1816 2110 1873 1559 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.5 121.3 123.0 124.9 126.7 130.3 133.7 136.9 139.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 17 17 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -27. -33. -40. -49. -52. -54. -55. -56. -57. -58. -61. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.2 119.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 519.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/08/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##