* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/08/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 66 61 56 46 38 30 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 66 61 56 46 38 30 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 70 65 59 53 44 38 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 3 2 3 10 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 5 8 3 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 295 331 325 346 291 263 281 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.3 23.6 23.4 22.8 23.1 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 118 112 108 101 99 92 95 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 44 41 40 36 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 31 22 23 34 40 37 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -15 -22 -27 -23 -12 0 3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 4 -2 3 6 0 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 940 1022 1125 1266 1375 1638 1940 2040 1726 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 119.4 121.0 122.9 124.7 128.3 131.9 135.3 138.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 17 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. -37. -40. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -29. -37. -45. -54. -57. -59. -60. -61. -62. -61. -63. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.0 117.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/08/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 583.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/08/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##