* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 72 68 57 47 39 29 26 24 23 22 22 21 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 72 68 57 47 39 29 26 24 23 22 22 21 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 67 61 50 42 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 4 0 3 6 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 2 6 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 232 300 331 309 324 244 276 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.4 24.2 22.8 22.7 22.5 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 118 110 107 93 92 89 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 49 44 41 39 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 13 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 27 23 22 35 36 23 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 5 -14 -21 -9 -6 7 -3 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 0 -1 3 3 0 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 837 914 999 1119 1250 1476 1768 2083 1881 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.7 119.2 121.1 122.9 126.5 130.1 133.7 136.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 18 17 17 17 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -23. -28. -32. -35. -39. -42. -45. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -8. -12. -23. -33. -41. -51. -54. -56. -57. -58. -58. -59. -62. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.0 116.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 589.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 3.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 5.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/08/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##