* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/07/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 75 72 68 59 49 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 25 22 V (KT) LAND 80 78 75 72 68 59 49 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 72 67 62 52 44 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 6 4 1 3 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 6 4 1 4 2 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 216 278 304 350 155 271 248 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 25.8 25.7 25.3 24.7 23.5 23.3 22.8 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 123 122 118 112 100 98 92 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 51 49 45 40 36 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 16 15 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 37 26 22 31 33 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 19 12 -3 -10 -2 -8 -13 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 0 0 8 -3 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 762 844 918 1007 1117 1360 1625 1944 2039 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.3 19.7 19.8 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.5 116.0 117.5 119.2 120.9 124.6 128.3 132.0 135.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -29. -32. -35. -38. -41. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -31. -40. -49. -52. -53. -53. -53. -53. -53. -55. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 114.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/07/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 561.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.1% 4.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/07/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##