* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/07/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 74 72 67 60 50 42 33 31 29 29 29 29 29 27 24 V (KT) LAND 80 78 74 72 67 60 50 42 33 31 29 29 29 29 29 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 80 76 71 65 60 51 43 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 1 5 2 3 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 8 6 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 262 205 211 333 110 265 237 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 25.6 25.5 25.2 24.2 22.8 22.8 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 121 121 117 107 93 92 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 51 49 42 40 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 17 15 14 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 29 37 26 21 31 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 21 27 8 0 1 -3 7 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 1 0 8 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 711 750 813 903 998 1235 1468 1783 2055 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.2 19.7 19.8 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.5 115.8 117.6 119.3 122.7 126.4 130.2 133.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 15 17 16 17 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -19. -25. -28. -31. -34. -37. -40. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -8. -13. -20. -30. -38. -47. -49. -51. -51. -51. -51. -51. -53. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.2 113.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/07/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.8% 4.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/07/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##