* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/07/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 72 69 66 58 52 43 36 28 22 22 22 22 23 22 21 V (KT) LAND 80 76 72 69 66 58 52 43 36 28 22 22 22 22 23 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 80 75 71 65 59 50 43 37 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 5 2 1 3 5 11 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 9 5 5 2 1 0 -1 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 287 244 189 170 322 199 260 232 253 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 26.9 25.6 25.4 24.1 23.0 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 134 121 119 106 95 93 92 93 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 54 53 44 42 39 36 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 18 17 17 15 14 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 38 38 39 42 24 26 28 19 6 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 0 22 17 5 6 -11 0 -24 -19 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 6 11 8 3 9 2 12 1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 679 687 722 809 885 1088 1322 1593 1890 2080 1777 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.2 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.0 114.3 115.9 117.4 120.8 124.3 128.0 131.6 134.9 137.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 17 17 17 16 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -12. -18. -24. -28. -33. -36. -38. -41. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -22. -28. -37. -44. -52. -58. -58. -58. -58. -57. -58. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.0 111.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/07/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/07/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##