* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/07/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 77 72 67 60 54 45 36 30 24 23 23 25 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 85 81 77 72 67 60 54 45 36 30 24 23 23 25 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 77 72 66 55 47 40 34 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 9 9 5 6 2 3 7 8 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 9 4 3 0 -3 -2 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 307 285 246 188 275 165 216 210 232 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.0 27.2 26.8 25.6 25.1 23.8 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 137 133 121 116 103 90 90 92 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 56 55 49 41 40 36 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 19 19 17 15 15 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 39 45 42 27 25 33 27 18 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 0 5 17 19 -11 2 -17 9 -20 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 5 10 5 6 4 4 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 667 680 691 740 813 991 1235 1475 1774 2066 1892 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.8 19.9 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.9 113.1 114.5 115.9 119.2 122.7 126.4 130.1 133.4 136.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -12. -19. -26. -31. -35. -39. -41. -44. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -14. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -25. -31. -40. -49. -55. -61. -62. -62. -60. -58. -58. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.7 110.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/07/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.07 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 517.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 -1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.4% 9.6% 7.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.6% 3.3% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/07/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##