* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/06/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 82 80 80 76 70 62 55 45 40 33 29 30 31 31 29 V (KT) LAND 85 83 82 80 80 76 70 62 55 45 40 33 29 30 31 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 78 76 73 66 58 50 42 36 32 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 4 7 5 5 4 4 7 6 13 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 5 6 1 2 -4 -1 -3 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 360 334 318 340 168 254 207 231 241 229 247 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 26.1 25.3 24.1 22.6 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 138 138 126 118 106 91 91 92 95 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 62 61 58 58 54 49 42 40 35 32 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 18 19 20 19 16 15 12 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 27 34 36 43 43 28 28 33 32 24 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 17 10 6 1 5 -29 8 -10 -11 -26 -18 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 2 2 4 4 1 6 0 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 521 605 695 720 736 844 1001 1225 1482 1757 2061 1871 1495 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.0 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.6 110.8 112.0 113.2 115.8 119.0 122.4 126.3 129.9 133.4 136.9 140.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 14 16 18 18 17 16 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 7 5 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -14. -21. -26. -31. -35. -38. -41. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -8. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -9. -15. -23. -30. -40. -45. -52. -56. -55. -54. -54. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.0 108.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/06/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.67 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 14.7% 14.5% 13.1% 9.3% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.8% 5.4% 4.5% 3.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/06/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##