* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/06/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 85 84 81 78 73 65 60 50 43 37 31 28 26 26 25 V (KT) LAND 90 86 85 84 81 78 73 65 60 50 43 37 31 28 26 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 90 86 83 80 77 70 62 54 46 39 33 29 25 22 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 10 6 7 1 3 4 6 12 13 17 13 10 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 2 8 7 2 0 -5 -4 -4 -2 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 12 16 352 343 323 161 244 220 226 222 239 246 248 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.4 27.0 27.1 25.5 24.8 23.4 23.2 22.5 22.7 22.6 23.2 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 146 138 134 136 120 113 99 97 89 91 90 95 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 62 60 58 53 48 42 39 37 34 30 29 28 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 20 20 20 19 15 16 13 11 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 30 37 44 52 36 33 34 33 25 8 0 -14 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 40 20 -1 -19 18 -34 -8 -3 2 -17 -27 -47 -34 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 3 9 0 6 6 8 4 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 489 549 623 703 712 786 928 1109 1330 1576 1869 2091 1725 1443 1213 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.0 19.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.8 109.9 111.0 112.1 114.6 117.5 120.8 124.3 127.8 131.3 134.8 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 14 15 16 17 17 16 16 15 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 7 4 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -38. -42. -46. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -17. -25. -30. -40. -47. -53. -59. -62. -64. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.8 107.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/06/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.13 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.51 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 -1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.6% 10.1% 7.8% 7.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.1% 3.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/06/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##