* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/06/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 88 88 87 82 78 69 64 56 48 43 37 33 29 29 28 V (KT) LAND 95 91 88 88 87 82 78 69 64 56 48 43 37 33 29 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 89 86 84 77 70 61 52 44 37 32 29 26 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 7 5 3 5 5 4 8 10 13 15 14 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 -1 -1 6 6 6 4 -1 -4 -5 -7 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 15 12 7 5 11 155 246 247 212 224 225 234 237 219 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.2 24.3 22.7 23.0 22.5 22.4 22.4 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 145 141 135 127 117 108 91 94 89 88 87 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 62 61 58 52 49 43 41 38 35 29 29 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 19 20 20 19 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 21 18 31 38 54 51 30 33 29 25 9 -5 -15 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 53 51 30 3 -6 4 -25 10 -5 -2 -22 -13 -53 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -3 -1 1 1 1 4 1 0 2 2 1 6 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 443 485 553 626 704 726 852 986 1213 1413 1659 1934 2006 1693 1380 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.6 18.3 19.2 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.7 108.9 109.9 110.9 113.2 115.9 118.8 122.4 125.8 129.0 132.2 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 11 12 14 16 17 16 15 15 15 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 13 11 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -24. -31. -36. -41. -45. -50. -54. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -7. -8. -13. -17. -26. -31. -39. -47. -52. -58. -62. -66. -66. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.6 106.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/06/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 446.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.8% 10.7% 8.5% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.6% 3.8% 2.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/06/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##