* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 98 97 96 89 86 80 72 64 54 48 42 37 32 31 30 V (KT) LAND 100 100 98 97 96 89 86 80 72 64 54 48 42 37 32 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 100 98 95 88 80 71 61 52 44 37 32 27 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 13 9 9 3 3 3 8 11 12 14 15 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 -2 -3 1 5 7 3 0 -4 -2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 9 20 17 357 339 316 158 231 199 210 217 235 240 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.3 27.3 25.8 24.8 23.7 22.8 22.5 22.5 22.1 22.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 149 147 138 138 123 113 102 92 89 88 84 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 66 64 60 57 52 46 42 41 38 36 32 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 16 18 18 20 19 17 16 13 12 9 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 28 17 13 23 43 43 44 30 32 30 16 -5 -20 -35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 21 46 39 14 -4 0 -25 -1 3 -4 -21 -15 -45 -39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -3 -1 -1 2 -4 1 2 3 9 9 8 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 373 423 461 517 588 720 759 912 1060 1273 1493 1732 1968 2006 1715 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.7 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.3 107.4 108.4 109.4 111.6 114.0 116.9 120.2 123.5 126.8 129.9 132.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 11 13 15 16 16 15 14 13 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 11 9 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. -0. -4. -11. -19. -26. -32. -38. -43. -48. -52. -57. -60. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -3. 1. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 2. -0. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -3. -4. -11. -14. -20. -28. -36. -46. -52. -58. -63. -68. -69. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.4 105.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 -2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 13.5% 12.6% 11.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.7% 4.6% 4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##