* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/05/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 99 96 93 92 89 83 78 72 66 58 52 47 43 43 42 V (KT) LAND 100 100 99 96 93 92 89 83 78 72 66 58 52 47 43 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 101 99 97 91 85 77 68 60 52 44 39 34 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 19 16 7 6 3 2 3 4 7 10 10 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 1 -3 -1 3 5 6 3 0 -3 -5 -1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 5 10 18 19 10 1 146 191 225 219 201 233 241 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 27.9 27.1 26.7 25.5 25.1 23.7 23.2 22.4 22.6 22.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 152 153 152 143 136 132 120 116 101 97 88 88 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 67 68 64 62 54 51 48 50 45 42 37 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 17 17 21 22 19 18 17 16 13 11 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 26 32 20 14 34 47 52 46 34 20 11 0 -28 -42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 5 32 51 48 7 -9 18 -10 15 -4 -4 -21 -28 -47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 -5 -3 0 0 0 2 0 1 5 4 8 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 336 370 423 469 529 682 751 840 1000 1172 1354 1565 1851 2073 1985 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.7 105.0 106.2 107.3 108.4 110.5 112.6 115.4 118.5 121.4 124.3 127.5 131.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 10 12 15 15 14 14 16 15 11 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 12 14 15 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -24. -29. -35. -40. -44. -48. -52. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -6. -1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -11. -17. -22. -28. -34. -42. -48. -53. -57. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.1 103.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/05/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.13 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 -2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 11.0% 10.6% 9.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.4% 3.7% 3.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/05/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##