* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/05/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 93 92 92 88 85 85 83 76 71 64 55 50 46 42 38 V (KT) LAND 90 92 93 92 92 88 85 85 83 76 71 64 55 50 46 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 90 94 95 95 94 90 84 80 74 66 57 48 41 34 28 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 18 15 16 17 10 12 5 5 6 6 8 9 7 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 0 1 -2 -4 -1 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 17 7 8 10 14 20 353 323 276 214 191 204 190 224 220 243 236 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.0 24.7 23.9 22.4 22.7 22.3 22.6 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 152 152 155 151 145 142 139 125 112 104 88 90 85 90 93 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 70 68 65 63 57 55 49 50 44 45 43 42 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 17 18 19 22 23 21 20 18 15 13 10 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 15 20 28 18 35 47 46 44 34 28 23 3 -11 -9 -6 200 MB DIV 54 41 39 24 32 37 20 -4 29 -7 -17 -21 10 -16 -24 -30 -13 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -3 -5 -3 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 7 12 12 11 LAND (KM) 295 319 342 353 387 515 655 751 825 959 1083 1283 1493 1697 1883 2094 1798 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.5 19.2 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.8 102.1 103.5 104.7 105.8 108.2 110.2 112.3 114.8 117.4 120.3 123.4 126.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 11 12 14 15 15 15 11 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 13 13 13 11 7 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -29. -33. -37. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 13. 10. 9. 6. 1. -0. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 2. -2. -5. -5. -7. -14. -19. -26. -35. -40. -44. -48. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.3 100.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/05/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 16.5% 15.1% 14.3% 9.2% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 4.6% 1.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 7.8% 5.7% 5.2% 3.4% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 14.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/05/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##