* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/04/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 91 92 94 92 92 89 88 83 80 71 65 58 53 47 42 V (KT) LAND 85 89 91 92 94 92 92 89 88 83 80 71 65 58 53 47 42 V (KT) LGEM 85 90 92 94 94 94 91 87 81 75 68 60 52 43 36 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 17 18 20 13 14 7 3 4 7 7 8 8 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 -2 -2 -1 -5 0 -1 2 0 0 -1 -2 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 42 32 28 28 21 30 14 356 333 304 226 203 214 197 217 218 243 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.3 28.2 27.9 26.9 25.5 24.5 23.4 23.1 22.5 22.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 154 155 154 148 146 144 134 120 110 98 95 88 91 94 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 71 70 67 63 61 57 52 48 44 42 41 41 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 14 16 18 20 21 22 22 23 20 18 15 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 23 19 26 21 34 43 49 47 53 42 43 26 14 10 7 200 MB DIV 51 62 56 50 26 47 25 -17 4 -10 -1 -10 3 -28 -22 -40 -23 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -6 -3 -5 -2 -5 0 0 6 4 9 15 7 LAND (KM) 303 326 350 371 402 499 625 785 834 937 1065 1239 1442 1648 1881 2123 1808 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.6 101.1 102.5 103.8 105.1 107.4 109.6 111.6 113.8 116.3 119.2 122.2 125.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 12 13 14 16 15 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 14 15 14 9 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. -28. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -3. -0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 14. 9. 6. 2. -0. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 7. 4. 3. -2. -5. -14. -20. -27. -32. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 13.7 99.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.26 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 20.1% 17.3% 16.5% 10.5% 12.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 6.6% 2.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 9.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 12.1% 7.4% 6.2% 4.0% 4.3% 2.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 11.0% 11.0% 12.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##