* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/04/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 80 83 86 86 87 84 83 80 74 66 60 55 49 44 V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 80 83 86 86 87 84 83 80 74 66 60 55 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 80 81 82 84 83 81 80 76 69 61 53 44 36 30 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 14 15 18 19 12 12 4 3 6 9 5 6 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 4 -1 -2 -5 -4 -2 0 2 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 33 28 33 22 20 24 2 348 307 236 178 214 229 240 264 268 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.1 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.2 25.9 25.0 23.7 22.4 22.4 22.3 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 150 153 156 149 144 141 137 124 115 102 87 88 87 90 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 70 70 65 63 59 59 53 49 45 44 42 42 35 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 13 15 17 18 19 21 23 24 22 20 17 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 26 26 19 38 25 39 50 48 49 46 44 37 16 10 9 200 MB DIV 44 49 53 73 54 35 41 10 -6 13 -8 -2 -18 4 -14 -23 -17 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -6 -4 -1 -2 -1 -5 -1 5 5 5 10 7 LAND (KM) 268 281 307 329 336 438 552 708 788 867 991 1137 1347 1519 1715 1975 1862 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.3 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.3 99.8 101.3 102.7 104.0 106.6 108.8 110.8 113.0 115.3 117.8 120.8 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 11 12 13 16 16 14 14 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 12 13 14 10 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 321 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 16. 13. 9. 5. 2. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 11. 12. 10. 8. 5. -1. -9. -15. -20. -26. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.6 98.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 18.6% 17.3% 16.6% 10.5% 13.0% 8.9% 5.6% Logistic: 1.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 8.5% 6.4% 5.8% 3.6% 4.4% 3.1% 1.9% DTOPS: 18.0% 11.0% 10.0% 11.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##