* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/04/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 83 85 91 91 92 89 88 79 77 69 62 57 50 44 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 83 85 91 91 92 89 88 79 77 69 62 57 50 44 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 83 87 93 94 90 85 80 73 65 56 47 38 32 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 12 14 15 23 17 16 11 5 7 6 8 7 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 3 -1 -3 -5 -2 0 4 2 2 2 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 79 57 41 44 29 16 31 30 12 342 313 225 220 245 202 244 247 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.0 25.0 24.3 23.1 23.1 22.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 161 162 161 154 147 140 138 138 125 115 108 95 95 87 85 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 72 71 71 68 64 61 58 53 50 47 45 42 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 14 14 18 19 21 22 25 22 25 22 19 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 36 25 22 31 27 26 26 40 47 59 46 53 50 52 36 36 33 200 MB DIV 87 62 83 90 70 45 51 35 19 10 0 7 -31 -2 -11 -26 -16 700-850 TADV 2 0 -3 -3 -2 -5 -7 -3 -3 -3 -5 2 -2 7 6 3 10 LAND (KM) 245 228 233 246 262 330 419 560 715 761 875 1007 1216 1389 1620 1883 2039 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.6 16.6 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.9 99.4 100.8 102.3 105.0 107.3 109.4 111.4 113.7 116.3 119.2 122.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 12 11 10 11 12 14 15 15 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 16 17 18 12 7 4 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 12. 14. 19. 15. 16. 12. 8. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 15. 21. 21. 22. 19. 18. 9. 7. -1. -8. -13. -20. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.5 96.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.48 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.2% 29.3% 23.4% 23.0% 14.2% 18.1% 12.4% 7.7% Logistic: 5.7% 10.9% 5.5% 3.2% 1.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.3% 13.5% 7.7% 2.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.1% 17.9% 12.2% 9.7% 5.4% 6.8% 4.4% 2.6% DTOPS: 33.0% 33.0% 30.0% 26.0% 17.0% 10.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##