* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 82 88 92 95 96 93 92 89 82 81 75 68 62 55 49 V (KT) LAND 70 77 82 88 92 95 96 93 92 89 82 81 75 68 62 55 49 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 82 86 90 96 98 96 93 87 82 75 66 55 45 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 9 12 14 16 20 17 11 9 7 4 5 10 8 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 2 2 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 3 3 3 2 2 7 SHEAR DIR 113 68 48 59 49 28 25 35 28 11 327 284 241 228 229 256 271 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.3 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.3 26.0 25.0 23.9 22.6 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 160 162 159 150 144 141 137 138 125 115 104 90 90 91 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 72 72 73 68 66 62 62 57 52 45 44 40 38 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 15 15 15 17 19 21 24 22 24 22 20 17 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 23 19 32 25 28 17 36 52 43 50 42 39 25 21 19 200 MB DIV 108 95 68 85 102 60 48 33 14 -18 11 -19 21 -14 -11 -39 -34 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 -1 -3 -4 -8 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 9 1 6 6 LAND (KM) 314 272 255 238 251 307 385 491 634 726 792 942 1090 1281 1466 1727 2024 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.7 96.2 97.6 99.1 100.5 103.4 105.9 108.2 110.1 112.2 114.4 117.1 120.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 13 12 10 10 10 12 15 16 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 15 16 18 18 10 6 5 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 11. 14. 11. 7. 3. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 23. 22. 19. 12. 11. 5. -2. -8. -15. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.9 94.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.8% 53.1% 40.7% 30.8% 22.4% 20.8% 14.4% 9.0% Logistic: 16.0% 22.3% 12.1% 8.4% 2.0% 4.5% 2.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 17.3% 28.7% 30.3% 18.0% 0.7% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 26.4% 34.7% 27.7% 19.0% 8.4% 9.7% 5.6% 3.2% DTOPS: 37.0% 66.0% 59.0% 52.0% 37.0% 19.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##