* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 75 79 83 88 88 88 83 79 75 72 66 62 55 47 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 75 79 83 88 88 88 83 79 75 72 66 62 55 47 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 68 71 73 80 87 91 89 83 76 70 64 58 49 41 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 12 17 17 17 20 19 17 8 7 4 5 5 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 2 1 2 0 -1 -4 0 3 2 0 0 1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 97 99 83 71 66 61 42 40 43 44 27 345 288 218 200 195 207 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.7 26.8 26.1 24.8 24.0 23.4 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 156 156 158 157 155 149 145 141 141 133 126 113 104 98 91 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 73 71 70 69 65 60 58 54 50 46 46 45 42 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 12 11 10 14 16 19 18 18 17 17 15 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 55 40 30 23 25 31 26 18 38 48 55 54 57 47 37 21 16 200 MB DIV 99 145 106 88 90 106 71 43 29 -2 -12 -12 1 2 -12 -23 -33 700-850 TADV 5 5 1 1 -3 -1 -3 -5 -2 -2 -3 0 1 4 -2 2 3 LAND (KM) 293 368 313 295 294 341 392 495 642 781 845 960 1090 1242 1406 1598 1833 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.5 95.0 96.5 98.0 99.4 102.3 105.1 107.5 109.8 111.9 114.0 116.4 119.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 15 13 12 11 10 11 13 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 16 22 16 17 15 14 10 7 6 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 409 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 2. 4. 9. 8. 8. 6. 6. 2. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 15. 19. 23. 28. 28. 28. 23. 19. 15. 12. 6. 2. -5. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.1 93.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 11.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.51 7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 11.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 9.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.7% 67.7% 54.0% 45.3% 33.7% 34.2% 19.4% 11.5% Logistic: 29.2% 42.5% 24.7% 19.0% 5.5% 9.7% 2.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 45.3% 54.2% 52.2% 40.1% 1.9% 8.9% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 38.7% 54.8% 43.7% 34.8% 13.7% 17.6% 7.7% 4.0% DTOPS: 49.0% 72.0% 67.0% 47.0% 46.0% 25.0% 9.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##