* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 66 70 75 78 79 79 77 72 70 68 65 62 57 51 V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 66 70 75 78 79 79 77 72 70 68 65 62 57 51 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 62 64 68 75 79 80 78 73 69 64 59 53 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 9 9 20 18 18 23 20 15 4 6 0 6 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 -4 -1 1 5 0 1 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 107 114 104 83 63 63 50 42 41 43 47 37 350 23 191 166 191 SST (C) 27.9 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.8 26.8 26.0 24.5 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 154 155 155 161 158 152 147 144 140 143 133 125 110 99 99 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 75 78 75 75 75 73 69 65 60 58 49 47 42 41 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 13 12 12 13 14 16 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 64 56 49 33 25 36 26 21 18 35 51 41 55 49 46 29 23 200 MB DIV 94 124 160 99 84 137 97 81 14 4 -18 -9 -25 -10 -11 -10 -36 700-850 TADV 5 5 4 4 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 0 4 7 5 5 LAND (KM) 256 279 346 328 308 308 350 420 531 692 807 883 1020 1131 1306 1465 1676 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.7 93.2 94.6 96.1 97.5 100.4 103.4 105.9 108.2 110.4 112.4 114.7 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 9 14 21 18 18 17 12 8 7 6 9 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 23. 24. 24. 22. 17. 15. 13. 10. 7. 2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.7 91.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 9.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 56.3% 40.5% 26.2% 17.9% 32.6% 23.5% 12.3% Logistic: 7.3% 29.1% 14.4% 10.3% 2.2% 5.8% 3.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 3.9% 15.6% 16.4% 7.2% 0.3% 4.6% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 8.6% 33.7% 23.7% 14.5% 6.8% 14.3% 9.4% 4.5% DTOPS: 26.0% 56.0% 36.0% 18.0% 17.0% 32.0% 11.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##